Expansion of EU will not mean more immigration

Alan Travis, Home affairs editor
Friday June 6, 2003
The Guardian

Concern that the eastward expansion of the EU next year will bring a new wave of immigrants to Britain is likely to prove unfounded, according to official research.
The Home Office-commissioned study published yesterday estimates that between 5,000 and 13,000 a year are likely to come from the 10 new members in the next seven years.

Yesterday MPs debated the legislation that will give people from Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Cyprus and Malta the right to work in Britain when their countries join in May.

Britain, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece have decided to use an available power to restrict the intake of workers from the new countries for up to seven years.

The study by University College London says that the estimated extra migration to Germany will range from 20,000 to 210,000 a year, depending on the restrictions it imposes over the transition period.

Even if Germany does impose restrictions and the UK had none it would have little impact on the number coming to Britain. Most are likely to go to Austria.

"Even in the worst case scenario, migration to the UK as a result of eastern enlargement of the EU is not likely to be overly large," it says.

"The evidence brought together indicates that net migration from the 10 countries to the UK will be broadly in line with current migration movements."

The Conservatives have raised fears that a far larger number will move to Britain.

A Home Office spokeswoman said it was not possible to make totally accurate forecasts of migration trends but the research indicated that net migration in this case was likely to be small.

"There were similar fears raised over previous enlargements of the EU that proved to be unfounded and as a preventative measure we are reserving the right to impose restrictions on the movement of workers later if it were demonstrated they were having a negative impact or if the flow was much larger than expected."

The Home Office findings were challenged last night by the Labour MEP Claude Moraes, who said the esimates of immigration to Britain from the new member states were "far too high".

Mr Moraes said that in the past when poorer countries such as Portugal joined the EU there had been "virtually no migration" to richer member states.

cmoraes@europarl.eu.int

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